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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Wigan 0-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.19 xG and Cardiff 0.69 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wigan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cardiff outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Cardiff attack 0.78 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 21%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 35%, Cardiff 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cardiff's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wigan 1.26 PPG, Cardiff 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights