🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Wigan 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Wigan 0-1 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wigan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 33%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wigan 1.24 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights