🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Stevenage 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.16 xG and Stevenage 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stevenage's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights