🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Stockport County at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Stevenage encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stevenage's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.90 PPG lead over Stevenage (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Stockport County — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Stevenage — key trading statistics (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 54% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Stevenage 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.16 xG and Stevenage 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.055 / defence 0.906 | Stevenage attack 0.782 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Data: 39 Stockport County games / 84 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Stevenage 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights