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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Rotherham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Rotherham 3-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.50 xG and Rotherham 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Rotherham attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 23%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Rotherham's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights