🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Stockport County (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Rotherham.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Rotherham travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all League One games this season, Rotherham have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rotherham's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 2, Rotherham 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Stockport County in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Rotherham in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Rotherham 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.50 xG and Rotherham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.993 / defence 1.144 | Rotherham attack 0.720 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.102. Data: 71 Stockport County games / 70 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 23%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Rotherham 4.35. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Rotherham 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights