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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Plymouth 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Plymouth 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.37 xG and Plymouth 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 41%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights