Stockport County 1-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Northampton at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Northampton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Northampton and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Northampton in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Northampton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 52% | Northampton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.34 xG and Northampton 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.825 / defence 1.121 | Northampton attack 1.058 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.252. Northampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Stockport County games / 56 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Northampton 41%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Northampton 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stockport County (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 20% | Northampton 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Northampton 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Stockport County 1.34 / Northampton 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.825 / def 1.121 | Northampton attack 1.058 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Northampton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Northampton xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Northampton kick off?
Stockport County vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Northampton?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Stockport County vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Northampton part of?
Stockport County vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 34% chance of winning, Northampton a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Northampton?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Northampton in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Northampton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stockport County vs Northampton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.82x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.99
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.83
1.49
Northampton xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.49 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 31W 16D 9L from 56 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 25L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Northampton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 17W 6D 4L from 27 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Northampton's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.23 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Northampton in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 31W 16D 9L in their last 56 games (1.95 PPG), while Northampton have gone 20W 11D 25L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Northampton away?
Stockport County's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.11 PPG; Northampton away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Northampton in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stockport County
3
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Northampton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Stockport County 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Northampton?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 33%, Northampton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stockport County) and 59% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Northampton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stockport County's recent matches and 59% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stockport County's recent games and 59% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Northampton tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Northampton in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.34 xG and Northampton 1.49 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Northampton attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 34% | Draw 25% | Northampton 41%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 52%, Northampton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Northampton's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.