Lincoln 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stockport County travel to LNER Stadium to take on Lincoln in League One (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lincoln stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lincoln at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have recorded 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Lincoln) versus 1.50 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 46% versus Stockport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 42% | Stockport County 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lincoln surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Stockport County have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.22 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.094 / defence 1.044 | Stockport County attack 0.963 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Data: built from Lincoln's last 57 games and Stockport County's last 11.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 36% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 37%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.77 | Draw 3.66 | Stockport County 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Lincoln's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lincoln 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 36% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lincoln 1.22 / Stockport County 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.094 / def 1.044 | Stockport County attack 0.963 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Stockport County xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Stockport County kick off?
Lincoln vs Stockport County kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Lincoln 2 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Lincoln vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Stockport County part of?
Lincoln vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 36% chance of winning, Stockport County a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lincoln and Stockport County will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lincoln vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lincoln's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 57 games and Stockport County's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.66
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
Stockport County xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.23 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln's recent record stands at 25W 17D 15L from 57 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 9L across 57 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.61 PPG, Stockport County on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 12W 8D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 14W 10D 4L across their last 28 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.95 scored and 1.00 conceded. Stockport County's attacking output running into Lincoln's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
Lincoln (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 25W 17D 15L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 31W 17D 9L in their last 57 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.57 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lincoln have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Lincoln's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lincoln
0
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stockport County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 3, Stockport County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Lincoln 3-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Stockport County?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 43%, Stockport County 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lincoln) and 64% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Stockport County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Lincoln's games and 75% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lincoln and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lincoln's matches and 64% of Stockport County's.
Do Lincoln and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Lincoln's recent matches and 79% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lincoln defy the odds to beat Stockport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Stockport County 2-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.22 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Stockport County attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 36% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 37%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.61 PPG, Stockport County 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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