Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 49%, yet the head-to-head data favours Mansfield Town — this Stockport County vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Mansfield Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Mansfield Town's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Mansfield Town, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Stockport County 2–1 Mansfield Town — a Stockport County win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Mansfield Town have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 34%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Mansfield Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Mansfield Town 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stockport County surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Mansfield Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Mansfield Town surrender HT leads in 34% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.40 xG and Mansfield Town 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.250 / defence 0.926 | Mansfield Town attack 0.820 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.171. Data: built from Stockport County's last 88 games and Mansfield Town's last 88.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.05 | Draw 3.66 | Mansfield Town 4.18. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 60% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 50% (last 10 away games).

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