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Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Stockport County 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 0-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.40 xG and Mansfield Town 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Mansfield Town attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 49% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Mansfield Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Mansfield Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights