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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Stockport County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.21 xG and Lincoln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Lincoln attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Lincoln 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Lincoln's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.81 PPG, Lincoln 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights