Stockport County 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 22 as Stockport County welcome Lincoln to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Edgeley Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.90 PPG versus Lincoln's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 1, Lincoln 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lincoln trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Lincoln 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Lincoln 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.21 xG and Lincoln 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.899 / defence 1.132 | Lincoln attack 0.952 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.157. Data: 66 Stockport County games / 67 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 37%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Lincoln 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Lincoln 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stockport County 1.21 / Lincoln 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.899 / def 1.132 | Lincoln attack 0.952 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lincoln xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Lincoln kick off?
Stockport County vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Lincoln?
Stockport County 1 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Stockport County vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Lincoln part of?
Stockport County vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 36% chance of winning, Lincoln a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stockport County and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Lincoln?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Lincoln in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.90x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.67
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Lincoln xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.25 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 34W 19D 14L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln's form line: 27W 18D 22L from 67 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.81 PPG, Lincoln on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (19W 8D 6L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 9W 10D 14L from 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 34W 19D 14L in their last 67 games (1.81 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 27W 18D 22L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Lincoln away?
Stockport County's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.97 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lincoln in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Lincoln runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lincoln have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stockport County
0
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Lincoln have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lincoln 3-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 58%, Lincoln 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stockport County) and 42% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lincoln in 30%; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stockport County's recent matches and 42% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Stockport County's recent games and 42% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Lincoln tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Stockport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.21 xG and Lincoln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Lincoln attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Lincoln 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.81 PPG, Lincoln 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.