Stockport County 1-1 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Leyton Orient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Stockport County welcome Leyton Orient to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Edgeley Park this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Leyton Orient — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leyton Orient's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stockport County 2.30 PPG, Leyton Orient 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Leyton Orient in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stockport County, 2 for Leyton Orient and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Leyton Orient trading profile (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Leyton Orient 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Leyton Orient 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.62 xG and Leyton Orient 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.243 / defence 0.931 | Leyton Orient attack 1.385 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.214. Leyton Orient have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Stockport County games / 92 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 37%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Leyton Orient 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 60% | Leyton Orient 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Stockport County 1.62 / Leyton Orient 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.243 / def 0.931 | Leyton Orient attack 1.385 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Leyton Orient xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 39% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stockport County and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 1 | Leyton Orient 2W.
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in?
Stockport County (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Leyton Orient (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.24) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/92 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
39%
2.58
25%
4.06
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.18
1.56
Leyton Orient xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.56 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 93 games, going 52W 24D 17L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.55 PPG from 93 outings (42W 18D 33L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.94 PPG, Leyton Orient on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 31W 9D 6L across 46 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.54 points per game from 46 outings (21W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.37 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 52W 24D 17L in their last 93 games (1.94 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 42W 18D 33L in their last 93 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Leyton Orient away?
Stockport County's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.22 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stockport County
4
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 44%, Leyton Orient 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stockport County) and 54% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stockport County's recent matches and 50% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stockport County's recent games and 54% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Leyton Orient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Leyton Orient finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.62 xG and Leyton Orient 1.56 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against Leyton Orient attack 1.39 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 39% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 37%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Leyton Orient 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.94 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.