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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Stockport County host Charlton at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Stockport County — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.

Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Charlton away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 2.30 PPG versus Charlton's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Charlton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Charlton trading profile (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Charlton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Charlton 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.39 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.093 / defence 0.945 | Charlton attack 1.180 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.147. Data: 35 Stockport County games / 80 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 27% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 50% | Charlton 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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