Stockport County 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Charlton at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Stockport County — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stockport County at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Charlton away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 2.30 PPG versus Charlton's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Charlton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Stockport County 1–1 Charlton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Charlton 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Charlton 49%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.39 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.093 / defence 0.945 | Charlton attack 1.180 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.147. Data: built from Stockport County's last 35 games and Charlton's last 80.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 27% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.57 | Draw 3.68 | Charlton 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 36 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 39% | Draw 27% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Stockport County 1.39 / Charlton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.093 / def 0.945 | Charlton attack 1.180 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Charlton xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Charlton kick off?
Stockport County vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Charlton?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Stockport County vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Charlton part of?
Stockport County vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stockport County and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stockport County vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.09x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 35 games and Charlton's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.68
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.67
1.28
Charlton xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.28 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 44W 21D 15L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 28W 28D 24L from 80 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.21 PPG from their last 39 home games (26W 8D 5L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 9W 15D 15L from their last 39 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.38 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 61%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Stockport County (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Stockport County vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Charlton in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 44W 21D 15L in their last 80 games (1.91 PPG), while Charlton have gone 28W 28D 24L in their last 80 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Charlton away?
Stockport County's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.21 PPG; Charlton away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Charlton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Charlton?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 0, Charlton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Stockport County 0-0 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 41%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stockport County) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Charlton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stockport County's recent matches and 62% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stockport County and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Stockport County's recent matches and 59% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Charlton finished level at 0-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.39 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Charlton attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 39% | Draw 27% | Charlton 34%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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