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Poisson rates Charlton at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Charlton encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 24 as Crawley Town welcome Charlton to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 5D 3L at Broadfield Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Charlton's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Charlton in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Charlton 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.02 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.887 / defence 1.237 | Charlton attack 1.101 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.120. Data: 35 Crawley Town games / 81 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 27% | Charlton 48%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.08. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.

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