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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Burton Albion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.12 xG and Burton Albion 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 41% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 27%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (83 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.99. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights