Stockport County 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 39. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stockport County have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Stockport County against 1.50 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Burton Albion and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 53% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.12 xG and Burton Albion 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.005 / defence 0.904 | Burton Albion attack 0.856 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.100. Data: 38 Stockport County games / 83 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 41% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Burton Albion 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 41% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Stockport County 1.12 / Burton Albion 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.005 / def 0.904 | Burton Albion attack 0.856 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Burton Albion xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Burton Albion kick off?
Stockport County vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Burton Albion?
Stockport County 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Stockport County vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Burton Albion part of?
Stockport County vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 41% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stockport County and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Burton Albion in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.86x) against Stockport County's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 38/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.17
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Stockport County xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Burton Albion xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.85 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stockport County come into this having played 83 games, going 45W 22D 16L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.99 PPG from 83 outings (20W 22D 41L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Stockport County's home form reads 26W 9D 5L across 40 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 1.08 points per game from 40 outings (10W 13D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.93 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 45W 22D 16L in their last 83 games (1.89 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 22D 41L in their last 83 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Burton Albion away?
Stockport County's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.17 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 0-3 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Burton Albion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Burton Albion 3-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Burton Albion?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 40%, Burton Albion 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stockport County) and 42% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Burton Albion in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stockport County's recent matches and 42% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stockport County's recent games and 42% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.12 xG and Burton Albion 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 41% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 27%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (83 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.99. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.