Stockport County vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 38 as Stockport County welcome Bradford to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 0D 4L at Edgeley Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stockport County 1.90 PPG, Bradford 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 2 for Bradford and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Bradford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Bradford 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 59% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.10 xG and Bradford 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.225 / defence 0.990 | Bradford attack 0.765 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Bradford's defence strength of 0.648 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Stockport County games / 57 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 37% | Draw 32% | Bradford 31%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Bradford 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Bradford 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 37% | Draw 32% | Bradford 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Stockport County 1.10 / Bradford 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.225 / def 0.990 | Bradford attack 0.765 / def 0.648 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bradford xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Bradford kick off?
Stockport County vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Bradford part of?
Stockport County vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 37% chance of winning, Bradford a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stockport County and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
Record (6 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 3 | Bradford 2W.
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bradford (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.23) and Bradford's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.08
0.98
Bradford xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.98 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County's recent record stands at 30W 12D 17L from 59 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 17L across 59 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stockport County on 1.73 PPG, Bradford on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 17W 4D 8L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.15 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Bradford have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Bradford away?
Stockport County's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.90 PPG; Bradford away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Bradford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bradford have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stockport County
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 62%, Bradford 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Stockport County) and 52% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bradford in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stockport County's games and 55% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Stockport County's matches and 52% of Bradford's.
Do Stockport County and Bradford tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bradford in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.