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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.56 xG and Bradford 0.66 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Bradford attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 27% | Bradford 15%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 43%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.84 PPG, Bradford 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights