🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Stockport County at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Bradford encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 4 as Stockport County welcome Bradford to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 8W 2D 0L at Edgeley Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bradford's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Bradford and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Bradford in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Bradford 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 43% | Bradford 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.56 xG and Bradford 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.170 / defence 0.853 | Bradford attack 0.716 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.087. Data: 49 Stockport County games / 3 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 27% | Bradford 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Bradford 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 70% | Bradford 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights