Stockport County 2-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 14 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 0D 4L at Edgeley Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Stockport County: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for AFC Wimbledon, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.
The historical record gives Stockport County a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus AFC Wimbledon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 55% | AFC Wimbledon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.33 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.194 / defence 1.010 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.772 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.262. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Stockport County games / 58 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 67% | Draw 20% | AFC Wimbledon 14%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | AFC Wimbledon 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | AFC Wimbledon 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 67% | Draw 20% | AFC Wimbledon 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Stockport County 2.33 / AFC Wimbledon 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.194 / def 1.010 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.772 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.98
AFC Wimbledon xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County 2 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 67% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (6 meetings): Stockport County 5W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.19) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.05
14%
7.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.31
0.98
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
7.32
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
10%
10.24
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
74.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.98 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County's recent record stands at 29W 12D 17L from 58 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 28L across 58 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 17W 4D 7L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 29W 12D 17L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 12D 28L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stockport County's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.96 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stockport County or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
From 7 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 6, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Stockport County 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 61%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Stockport County and 61% for AFC Wimbledon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Stockport County's games and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Stockport County's matches and 61% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out AFC Wimbledon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.33 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.98 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 67% | Draw 20% | AFC Wimbledon 14%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 55%, AFC Wimbledon 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.