Stevenage vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Stevenage take on Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Stevenage, 4 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Stockport County — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 38% | Stockport County 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.00 xG and Stockport County 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.946 / defence 0.805 | Stockport County attack 1.072 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.247. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Stevenage games / 60 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 35% | Stockport County 34%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Stockport County 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 35% | Stockport County 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Stevenage 1.00 / Stockport County 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.946 / def 0.805 | Stockport County attack 1.072 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stockport County xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Stockport County kick off?
Stevenage vs Stockport County is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Stockport County part of?
Stevenage vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
Record (8 meetings): Stevenage 4W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 4W.
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.07x) against Stevenage's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
35%
2.86
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.08
1.08
Stockport County xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.08 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 16D 19L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 30W 12D 18L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Stevenage against 1.70 for Stockport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.58 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Stockport County away?
Stevenage's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.97 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Stockport County in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Stockport County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 50% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stockport County in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 50% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Stockport County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.