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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Stockport County 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Stockport County 2-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.07 xG and Stockport County 0.74 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.82 / defence 0.74 against Stockport County attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 43% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 37%, Stockport County 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.35 PPG, Stockport County 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights