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Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Stockport County 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Stockport County 2-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.01 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.81 / defence 0.90 against Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 33%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Stockport County 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights