🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Stevenage at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Stockport County (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stockport County's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Stevenage — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Stockport County — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Stockport County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Stockport County 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.01 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.815 / defence 0.895 | Stockport County attack 0.987 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Data: 63 Stevenage games / 19 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 33%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 20% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights