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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.29 xG and Plymouth 1.22 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Plymouth attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 38% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 34%, Plymouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.39 PPG, Plymouth 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights