Stevenage vs Mansfield Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 35%, yet in-form Mansfield Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Stevenage 1W, Mansfield Town 3W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 47% versus Mansfield Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.27 xG and Mansfield Town 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.952 / defence 1.015 | Mansfield Town attack 0.946 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.314. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 49 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 30% | Mansfield Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Mansfield Town 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 40% | Mansfield Town 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 30% | Mansfield Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Stevenage 1.27 / Mansfield Town 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.952 / def 1.015 | Mansfield Town attack 0.946 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Mansfield Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 35% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stevenage and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Record (8 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 4 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.95x) against Stevenage's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.32
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.53
1.26
Mansfield Town xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.26 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 18W 15D 16L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 14L across 49 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Stevenage against 1.45 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 12W 8D 4L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 7W 9D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.43 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 18W 17D 14L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.83 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Mansfield Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 38% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 33%; Mansfield Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 54% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 38% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.