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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 2.01 xG and Crawley Town 1.34 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Crawley Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.66, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 53% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.41 PPG, Crawley Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights