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Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.21 xG and Cardiff 0.85 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Cardiff attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 26%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 32%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cardiff's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.42 PPG, Cardiff 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights