Stevenage vs Cambridge United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Stevenage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Lamex Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Stevenage, 1.70 for Cambridge United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Cambridge United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 37% | Cambridge United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.60 xG and Cambridge United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.104 / defence 0.755 | Cambridge United attack 0.977 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.303. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Stevenage games / 11 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 22%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Cambridge United 4.55. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Cambridge United 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.60 / Cambridge United 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.104 / def 0.755 | Cambridge United attack 0.977 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cambridge United xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Cambridge United kick off?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Cambridge United part of?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 51% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Record (4 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.10x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.98x) against Stevenage's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 56/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.64
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.56
0.96
Cambridge United xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
22.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.96 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 15D 18L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 27W 21D 9L from 57 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Stevenage against 1.79 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 9W 13D 6L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.47 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Cambridge United in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 27W 21D 9L in their last 57 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Cambridge United away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stevenage
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Cambridge United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Stevenage and 32% for Cambridge United.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cambridge United in 36%; Cambridge United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 32% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.