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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage and Burton Albion finished level at 2-2 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.95 xG and Burton Albion 0.83 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.83 / defence 0.79 against Burton Albion attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 37% | Draw 33% | Burton Albion 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 33%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.42 PPG, Burton Albion 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights