Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AFC Wimbledon travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage in League One (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AFC Wimbledon stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.60 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stevenage's games and 70% of AFC Wimbledon's (from Stevenage's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stevenage, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Stevenage 0–0 AFC Wimbledon — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus AFC Wimbledon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 38% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.65 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.857 / defence 0.843 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.063 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.164. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Stevenage's last 81 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 35.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.94 | Draw 4.08 | AFC Wimbledon 4.16. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 60% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Stevenage 1.65 / AFC Wimbledon 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.857 / def 0.843 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.063 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.04
AFC Wimbledon xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Stevenage 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 51% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.86x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 81 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
51%
1.94
25%
4.08
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.69
1.04
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
21.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.04 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 81 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 30W 21D 30L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 35W 20D 26L from 81 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.37 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 40 home games (18W 11D 11L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 13W 12D 15L from their last 40 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.23 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AFC Wimbledon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 30W 21D 30L in their last 81 games (1.37 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 20D 26L in their last 81 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stevenage's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.62 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stevenage or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 48%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stevenage) and 45% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stevenage's recent games and 45% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.65 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 1.36, drawn from 81/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 51% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 38%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.37 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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