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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shrewsbury and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shrewsbury and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.53 xG and Northampton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Northampton attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 44% | Draw 25% | Northampton 30%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 43%, Northampton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.94 PPG, Northampton 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights