Shrewsbury 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 47%, yet in-form Derby provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Derby travel to Montgomery Waters Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shrewsbury have posted 2W 4D 4L at Montgomery Waters Meadow — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Derby trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 43% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shrewsbury 39% | Derby 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.27 xG and Derby 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.855 / defence 1.037 | Derby attack 0.719 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.067. Data: 49 Shrewsbury games / 3 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 29% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 4.35. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derby (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 50% | Derby 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 29% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Shrewsbury 1.27 / Derby 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.855 / def 1.037 | Derby attack 0.719 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Derby xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Derby kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Shrewsbury 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Derby part of?
Shrewsbury vs Derby is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 47% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shrewsbury and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Derby in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.85) and Derby's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.39
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.07
0.80
Derby xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.80 for Derby, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shrewsbury come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 15D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (16W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.10 PPG, Derby on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shrewsbury's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (3W 6D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Derby in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Derby have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Derby away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.42 PPG; Derby away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Derby in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Derby?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 50%, Derby 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Shrewsbury) and 33% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 29% of games; Derby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 42% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 33% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Derby tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derby in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shrewsbury's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 4, as Shrewsbury and Derby drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.27 xG and Derby 0.80 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Derby attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 29% | Derby 23%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 39%, Derby 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.10 PPG, Derby 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.