Charlton 5-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Plymouth meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plymouth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Plymouth — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 47% versus Plymouth 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Plymouth 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.32 xG and Plymouth 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.951 / defence 0.943 | Plymouth attack 1.006 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.067. Data: 49 Charlton games / 49 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 30% | Plymouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Charlton 1.32 / Plymouth 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.951 / def 0.943 | Plymouth attack 1.006 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Charlton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Plymouth kick off?
Charlton vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Plymouth?
Charlton 5 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Charlton vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Plymouth part of?
Charlton vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 44% chance of winning, Plymouth a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Charlton and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Charlton and Plymouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.95) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.01x) against Charlton's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.56
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.34
1.01
Plymouth xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Charlton and 1.01 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 9D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth's form line: 25W 11D 13L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 9W 7D 8L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.47 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 18W 9D 22L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Plymouth away?
Charlton's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.54 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Charlton or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Plymouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 5-1 on 16 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Plymouth 2-0 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 33%, Plymouth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charlton) and 46% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Charlton's recent matches and 54% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Plymouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Plymouth 5-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.32 xG and Plymouth 1.01 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Plymouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 44% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Plymouth 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.