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Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Shrewsbury 0-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.95 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 36%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.93 PPG, Burton Albion 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights