Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury meet at Hillsborough in League One, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday (all games): 3W 1D 2L across 6 League One fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sheffield Wednesday have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shrewsbury have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 League One outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Sheffield Wednesday's 1.67 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Shrewsbury's 0.57 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Sheffield Wednesday have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Shrewsbury in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Sheffield Wednesday half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sheffield Wednesday 0% | Shrewsbury 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sheffield Wednesday 17% | Shrewsbury 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 xG and Shrewsbury 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.978 / defence 0.912 | Shrewsbury attack 0.553 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.080. Data: 6 Sheffield Wednesday games / 7 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 52% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 17%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Shrewsbury 5.88. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 0% | Shrewsbury 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 52% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 29% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 / Shrewsbury 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.978 / def 0.912 | Shrewsbury attack 0.553 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Shrewsbury xG
29%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 52% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 0.98x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.55x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.25
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
1.75
0.54
Shrewsbury xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
5%
19.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.0 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.54 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Wednesday come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sheffield Wednesday carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sheffield Wednesday have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Early Season
Shrewsbury
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sheffield Wednesday have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Wednesday won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Shrewsbury 0-3 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Wednesday see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 33% (Shrewsbury) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Sheffield Wednesday and 33% for Shrewsbury.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 50% of games; Shrewsbury in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 33% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 33% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 8, as Sheffield Wednesday and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 xG and Shrewsbury 0.54 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Shrewsbury attack 0.55 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 52% | Draw 31% | Shrewsbury 17%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 17%, Shrewsbury 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.