Portsmouth 1-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 8 as Portsmouth welcome Cambridge United to Fratton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Portsmouth have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.33 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambridge United — All Games: 2W 2D 2L from 6 League One fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.67 PPG, Cambridge United 1.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Portsmouth 0% | Cambridge United 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Portsmouth 0% | Cambridge United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.26 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.994 / defence 0.978 | Cambridge United attack 0.879 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.080. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Portsmouth games / 6 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 44% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 27%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Cambridge United 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 0% | Cambridge United 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 44% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Portsmouth 1.26 / Cambridge United 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.994 / def 0.978 | Cambridge United attack 0.879 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cambridge United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kick off?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United part of?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 44% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Portsmouth and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.18
0.93
Cambridge United xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.93 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.67 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portsmouth have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Cambridge United in 67%.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
Cambridge United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Portsmouth or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2022, when Portsmouth won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Portsmouth 0% BTTS, Cambridge United 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Portsmouth and 50% for Cambridge United.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Cambridge United in 33%; Portsmouth have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 67% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Portsmouth's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.26 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambridge United outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Cambridge United attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 44% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 27%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 0%, Cambridge United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.67 PPG, Cambridge United 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.