Rotherham 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rotherham at 43%, yet in-form Stockport County provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rotherham vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Stockport County travel to AESSEAL New York Stadium to take on Rotherham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at AESSEAL New York Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rotherham are significantly better at AESSEAL New York Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stockport County — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Rotherham in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 44% versus Stockport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 44% | Stockport County 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.29 xG and Stockport County 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.987 / defence 0.975 | Stockport County attack 0.889 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.163. Data: 20 Rotherham games / 22 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 43% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 29%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Stockport County 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stockport County (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Rotherham 40% | Stockport County 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 43% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Rotherham 1.29 / Stockport County 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.987 / def 0.975 | Stockport County attack 0.889 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stockport County xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Stockport County kick off?
Rotherham vs Stockport County kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Stockport County?
Rotherham 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Rotherham vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Stockport County part of?
Rotherham vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 43% chance of winning, Stockport County a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rotherham and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rotherham and Stockport County in?
Rotherham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (0.99) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.56
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Stockport County xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.01 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rotherham's recent record stands at 11W 17D 38L from 66 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 37W 17D 12L across 66 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 10W 10D 13L from 33 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Rotherham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stockport County's away record stands at 15W 10D 8L across 33 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rotherham are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.95 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 11W 17D 38L in their last 66 games (0.76 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 37W 17D 12L in their last 66 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.21 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rotherham and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Rotherham's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rotherham
1
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 0, Stockport County have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stockport County 3-2 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 52%, Stockport County 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rotherham) and 64% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Rotherham have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rotherham's games and 70% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rotherham's recent games and 64% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Stockport County tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Rotherham and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.29 xG and Stockport County 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Stockport County attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 43% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 29%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 44%, Stockport County 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.