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Prediction vindicated as Rotherham edge out Port Vale 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham beat Port Vale 2-1 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.67 xG and Port Vale 1.09 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 51% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 25%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 44%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Rotherham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights