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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rotherham defy the odds to beat Plymouth 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham beat Plymouth 1-0 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 0.96 xG and Plymouth 2.06 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Plymouth attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 17% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 63%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Rotherham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.15 PPG, Plymouth 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rotherham win broke the near-deadlock. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights