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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham and Exeter City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham and Exeter City finished level at 1-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.47 xG and Exeter City 0.87 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Exeter City attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 51% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 22%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 46%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights