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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham beat Bolton 3-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.38 xG and Bolton 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Bolton attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 40% | Draw 26% | Bolton 34%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 42%, Bolton 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Rotherham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights