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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reading.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Reading 1-3 at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reading 1.46 xG and Cardiff 1.50 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reading attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Cardiff attack 1.27 / defence 0.91, drawn from 89/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reading 37% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 39%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reading 51%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reading's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reading 1.55 PPG, Cardiff 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Reading (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights