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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Rotherham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Rotherham 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.11 xG and Rotherham 0.89 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.67 / defence 1.08 against Rotherham attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 41% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 29%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rotherham's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.32 PPG, Rotherham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights