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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Port Vale.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Port Vale 1-3 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.06 xG and Exeter City 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Exeter City outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Exeter City attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 37% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 32%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Exeter City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Exeter City's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.40 PPG, Exeter City 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights