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Bradford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port Vale.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Port Vale 0-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.29 xG and Bradford 1.05 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Bradford attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 42% | Draw 28% | Bradford 30%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Bradford 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bradford's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.37 PPG, Bradford 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights