Port Vale 0-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Bradford meet at Vale Park in League One (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Bradford (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2025, ended Port Vale 0–1 Bradford — a Bradford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 44% versus Bradford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Bradford 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.29 xG and Bradford 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.756 / defence 1.188 | Bradford attack 0.767 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.156. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Bradford's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Bradford's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Port Vale's last 32 games and Bradford's last 35.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 42% | Draw 28% | Bradford 30%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.39 | Draw 3.60 | Bradford 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 50% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Bradford | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 42% | Draw 28% | Bradford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Port Vale 1.29 / Bradford 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.756 / def 1.188 | Bradford attack 0.767 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bradford xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Bradford kick off?
Port Vale vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Bradford?
Port Vale 0 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Port Vale vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Bradford part of?
Port Vale vs Bradford is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 42% chance of winning, Bradford a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port Vale and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Port Vale vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.77x) against Port Vale's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 32 games and Bradford's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.60
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.34
1.05
Bradford xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.05 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale come into this having played 78 games, going 28W 23D 27L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.69 PPG from 78 outings (38W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Port Vale against 1.69 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Port Vale's home form reads 14W 13D 12L across their last 39 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 39 away games (8W 13D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Bradford in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 28W 23D 27L in their last 78 games (1.37 PPG), while Bradford have gone 38W 18D 22L in their last 78 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Bradford away?
Port Vale's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.41 PPG; Bradford away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 11 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bradford have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bradford?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Bradford have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2026: Port Vale 0-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 46%, Bradford 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Port Vale) and 51% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 38% of games; Bradford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Port Vale's recent matches and 59% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Port Vale's recent games and 51% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Port Vale's recent matches and 72% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Port Vale 0-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.29 xG and Bradford 1.05 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 1.19 against Bradford attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 42% | Draw 28% | Bradford 30%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Bradford 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.37 PPG, Bradford 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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