🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Port Vale 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 35%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.40 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights